Suddenly, there were a number of heavyweight policies and data in the cotton market. Zhengmian futures began to change, and the funders began to move around...
What happened to China's futures and spot market today on July 24, and listened to the eagle eye squad.
[Market rumors: cotton dumping will be postponed] Cotton heavy market rumors: It is said that the reserve development committee and the Ministry of Finance initially agreed on the reserve cotton in September.
[Breaking News: 410,000 tons of reserves in Xinjiang cotton inspections soon] According to China Cotton Network, China’s Reserve Cotton Management Corporation recently issued the “Notice on the Release of the Sixth Batch of National Reserve Cotton Rolls in 2016/2017â€. The sixth batch of outbound inspection plans was 414,000 tons. It is reported that the 41.4 million tons of the sixth batch of public inspection plans are all for the storage of Xinjiang cotton, involving 12 provinces and 14 storage units, all of which are directly under the central storage cotton.
The notice also conveyed several information to the cotton-related enterprises: First, the China Reserve Cotton Management Corporation increased the number of public inspections and exits of its affiliates, aiming to play the role of “national team†and fully ensure the completion of the national macro-control tasks; Since the turn of the round, the transaction rate of Xinjiang cotton has been close to 100%. Textile enterprises prefer Xinjiang cotton. The price increase is high, and the number of cotton listed in Xinjiang will increase. Third, regulate the market and curb the structural gap of domestic cotton supply. Hype space, it is expected that the new year cotton price will be in line with this year.
[Policy News] In 2016, the subsidy standard for cotton freight in Xinjiang was 500 yuan/ton, and the weight of standard cotton bales was calculated according to 0.227 tons. (China Cotton Information Network)
02, policy interpretation
[Policy Interpretation] According to the latest report of COFCO Futures, at noon on July 21, according to authoritative sources, the NDRC meeting in the morning decided to extend the cotton dump to the end of September. In the afternoon, Zheng Mian heard the news plunged 500 points, and the trend of shocks was broken. For the fall.
The impact of the deferred policy on the cotton market will be: First, the extension of one month's storage period will increase the supply of 420,000 tons, which will strengthen the buyer's advantage and weaken the seller's advantage. This is a policy bad news. Second, This is a structural contradiction in the supply of time, rather than a creative subversive contradiction. It will change the rhythm of the cotton market, but it will not subvert the overall situation of shocks.
[Policy Interpretation] According to the latest report of CITIC Futures analyst Wang Yan, Zheng Shang Institute announced in November 2016: Xinjiang Agricultural Resources Group Beijiang Nongjiale Co., Ltd., Shihezi Tianyin Logistics Co., Ltd., Korla Silver Star Logistics Co., Ltd. The company was transferred from the cotton delivery transfer warehouse designated by Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange to the designated cotton delivery warehouse, which will be implemented from September 19, 2017.
At the same time, adjust the premiums for the designated cotton delivery warehouse and the premium for the cotton production. That is to say, the inland cotton delivery warehouse will be upgraded to 900-1000-"freight subsidy", and the Xinjiang delivery warehouse will not be provided with premium water. Non-Xinjiang production and processing of cotton for futures delivery when the discount of 200 yuan / ton; cancel the Xinjiang production and processing of cotton premium 200 yuan / ton.
It is expected that the impact of 2017/18 will be: 1. The current price difference will be expanded; 2. The base price will increase the freight adjustment; 3. The proportion of the registration of the property cotton warehouse receipt will increase; 4. The difficulty of registering the warehouse receipt will be reduced, and the difficulty of digestion will increase; Single is not a warehouse receipt.
03. Industry monitoring
[Industry monitoring: In June, the national cotton planting area is estimated to be 44.132 million mu, and the national cotton bud rate is 90.4%, which is 6.5 percentage points faster than the same period of last year. According to the China Cotton Association, the meteorological conditions in most parts of the country in June are conducive to cotton growth and development. The overall growth is better than last year, the incidence of pests and diseases is relatively light. The China Cotton Association estimates that the national cotton planting area will be 44.132 million mu, up 6.86% year-on-year. The total output is expected to be 5.385 million tons, up 8.57% year-on-year, an increase of 94,000 from the previous forecast. Ton.
At the end of June, most cotton fields were in the prosperous period. The national cotton bud rate was 90.4%, which was 6.5 percentage points faster than the same period of last year; the incidence of pests and diseases was lighter; the better growth rate was 46.6%, which was 19% higher than the same period last year. At the end of June, the total commercial stock of cotton in the country was about 1,312,900 tons, a decrease of 206,300 tons from the previous month, a decrease of 13.6%.
[CFTC cotton position weekly report: the net long position of fund positions decreased by 3 percentage points compared with the previous week.] According to the latest CFTC position report released by CFTC, as of July 18, the fund's long position was 74,998, an increase of 786 from the previous week. There were 50,522 positions, an increase of 5,688 from the previous week; the fund's net position was 24,476, and the net long rate was 11%, down 3 percentage points from the previous week.
[Industry monitoring: India's 2016/17 lint production increased to 5,733,500 tons] According to Cotlook, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) released the cotton crop estimate for the 2016/17 quarter (from October 1, 2016) in June. CAI has increased its production to 5,733,325 tons (previously estimated to be 571,625 tons) and has consumed 5.19 million tons. Therefore, the estimated total cotton supply for the current year is estimated at 6,956,250 tons, of which 1.71 million tons are considered for export, and the stock is 7.0125 million tons. 04Market overview
[The market closed up and down, manganese silicon rose more than 3%]
As of the afternoon closing, the top three varieties of commodity futures were: manganese silicon 1709 up 3.49%, ferrosilicon 1709 up 1.43%, Shanghai nickel 1709 up 0.91%; the top three varieties were: rubber 1709 fell 2.91%, vegetable 1709 fell 2.76%, Zheng cotton 1709 fell 2.18%.
05[Important data event notice]
Tuesday, July 25, 2017
1. The Brazilian Central Bank convened a meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (July 25-26)
2. The Federal Reserve's FOMC held a two-day meeting on interest rates (July 25-26)
3. Japan Petroleum Association (PAJ) commercial crude oil inventories
4. London Metal Exchange (LME) weekly position report
5. ITS/SGS Malaysia July 1-25 Palm Oil Export Data
6. 4:00 US USDA Crop Growth Weekly
7. 7:50 Minutes of the Bank of Japan's June Monetary Policy Meeting
8. 22:00 US July Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index
9. 4:30 American Petroleum Institute (API) Inventory Weekly
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