In March 2017, China's textile and apparel trade volume was US$22.15 billion, up 16.7% year-on-year, of which exports were US$20.01 billion, up 18.8%, and imports were US$2.13 billion, up 0.4%. The trade surplus for the month was US$17.88 billion, up 21.4% year-on-year.
In the first quarter, the trade volume of textiles and apparels was US$60.55 billion, down 0.9% year-on-year, of which exports were US$54.9 billion, down 1.7%, imports were US$5.65 billion, up 6.9%, and the cumulative trade surplus was US$49.25 billion, down 2.6% year-on-year.
The internal and external environment has stabilized and rebounded towards good exports.
In the first quarter of 2017, due to the slow recovery of the global economy and the steady improvement of the domestic economy, the export of textiles and garments gradually stabilized and showed a trend of recovery.
Although the cumulative export volume has not resumed growth year-on-year, the decline is significantly smaller than the third quarter and fourth quarter of 2016. Especially in March, when the base year is relatively high, the export still achieved rapid growth in the first quarter. A good start formed a strong positive pull.
The reasons for the good stability of exports in the first quarter are as follows: First, the global economy has shown signs of continuous improvement and external demand has picked up. China's foreign trade export leading index rose steadily for five consecutive months, and the export orders index of export enterprises rose for five consecutive months. From the perspective of key markets, the decline in exports to the EU , the US, ASEAN and Japan has been reduced to a different extent than last year, and bilateral exports to Russia have achieved double-digit growth.
Second, the domestic economy is stable and positive. In the first quarter, GDP grew by 6.9%, exceeding market expectations. The PMI index rose for two consecutive months and remained in the expansion range for eight consecutive months, reflecting the stable development of the manufacturing industry.
Third, the year-on-year base is relatively low. A good start in the first quarter is conducive to enhancing corporate confidence and boosting the growth of export in the later period. However, due to a number of uncertainties, the basis for the current favorable conditions for growth still needs to be further consolidated. It is initially estimated that if the external market can maintain a stable recovery, the textile export in the second quarter will achieve a small increase.
In addition, the decline in prices has led to negative growth in apparel exports. In the first quarter, textile exports were basically flat, and the goods that caused the decline in overall exports were still clothing, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.9%. The main reason for the decline was the price drop. The total export volume of needle woven garments increased by 2.2% year-on-year, and the export unit price decreased by 2.7%.
Among them, knitted garments fell by 12.5%, and woven garments fell by 0.5%. The export volume of yarns and fabrics in textiles increased, the yarn export price increased by 0.9%, and the fabric fell by 7%.
In the first quarter, China's key provinces (cities) exports basically resumed growth, and the top five regions in terms of exports, except Fujian, all resumed growth. Zhejiang, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong increased by 0.7%, 8.1%, 5.6%, and 1 respectively. %, Fujian fell more than the same period last year, a decline of 21%.
Xinjiang's exports in key provinces of the “ Belt and Road †continued to grow. In the first quarter, exports totaled US$1.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.7%, of which clothing accounted for 80% and exports increased by 28.8%.
Emerging trade is developing rapidly and general trade exports are falling.
The development of emerging trade formats is still fast. In the first quarter, among the main trade methods, general trade exports fell by 4.5% year-on-year, processing trade fell by 8.3% year-on-year, and border small-scale trade fell by 13.6% year-on-year, with the declines exceeding the average. Only tourism trade and market procurement trade were the mainstays. The other "trade mode growth has not decreased, with an increase of 75.7%, and the share in exports has further increased to 8.1%, which has become the main support for the slowdown in exports.
In terms of imports, general trade increased by 15.1% year-on-year, and processing trade decreased by 1.3% year-on-year.
Export
The EU's decline exceeds the average.
In 2017, the European economy entered a slow recovery. According to data released by Eurostat, the initial value of GDP in the 28 countries in the first quarter increased by 1.9% year-on-year and 0.4% quarter-on-quarter. China's textile and apparel exports to the EU reached US$9.58 billion, down 3.2% year-on-year, which was greater than the average. The decline was mainly due to the decline of the former 15 countries in the EU, which was 4.5%, and the total of 13 countries that joined later increased by 11.8%. Rapid growth has been achieved in countries such as Hungary, Poland and Slovenia. Commodity-woven clothing total export volume grew 5.2%, the export price fell 8%.
The amount of exports to the United States decreased slightly, and the amount of clothing increased.
As the largest independent market, China’s exports to the United States in 2016 suffered the first drop in nearly 20 years. In the first quarter of 2017, although the economic performance was not good, for example, according to data released by the US Department of Commerce, US GDP grew by only 0.7% in the first quarter, lower than the fourth quarter of last year, and the market is still in a weak recovery phase.
However, China’s exports of textiles and clothing to the United States reached US$0.99 billion, down only 0.8% year-on-year. Among them, textiles increased by 4.6% and clothing decreased by 2.8%. Among the bulk commodities, the total export volume of needle woven garments increased by 2.3%, and the export unit price fell by 5.5%.
Exports to ASEAN fell year-on-year, and the market recovered slowly
The ASEAN market resumed relatively slowly. Exports to ASEAN in the first quarter still fell by 6% year-on-year, but they have improved significantly from the fourth quarter of last year. Among them, textiles and clothing fell by 2.9% and 14.3%, respectively, and commodity fabrics fell by 3%, and yarns increased by 2.5%. The total export volume of needle woven garments decreased by 4.8%, and the export unit price continued to decline last year, down 12.4%.
Among the 10 ASEAN countries, exports to Indonesia, Cambodia and Myanmar increased only year-on-year, and all the other 7 countries declined. The Philippines, which grew rapidly last year, fell 1%.
The decline in Japan’s decline has been traced back
Exports to Japan are now showing signs of recovery. In the first quarter, exports to Japan totaled US$4.75 billion, down 1.3% year-on-year. The decline was significantly lower than the previous two years, with apparel exports down 2.1%, mainly due to falling prices and needle-weaving garments. Exports increased by 3% in total, and the average unit price of exports fell by 4.8%.
Great potential for rebounding in emerging markets
After last year's downturn, emerging markets rebounded in the first quarter of 2017, up 15.2% year-on-year for Russia and 2.7%, 17.7%, and 3.1% for India, Brazil and South Africa, respectively.
The “Belt and Road†countries have become a new hot spot for foreign trade. In the first quarter, China’s exports to 64 countries along the “Belt and Road†totaled US$18.05 billion, accounting for 32.9% of the total exports, and overall exports fell slightly by 2.8%.
However, some of the countries (regions) have grown rapidly, such as Hungary in Central and Eastern Europe, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kazakhstan in Central Asia, Uzbekistan, Saudi Arabia in West Asia and North Africa, Georgia in the former Soviet Union, Afghanistan and Nepal in South Asia.
Most of the “Belt and Road†are emerging economies and developing countries with a total population of about 4.4 billion and a total economic output of about 21 trillion US dollars. These countries are generally in a period of rising economic development and generally have huge market development potential.
import
The amount of yarn has risen and the price of clothing has increased.
Imports of textiles and apparels continued to decline in the first quarter, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 6.9%, with textiles accounting for a major share of 8.9% and apparels up 2.4%.
Among the main commodities, the volume of yarn imports rose by 15.5% and 2.6% respectively. The import volume of fabrics decreased by 7.4%, and the average price increased by 6.1%. The import volume of clothing decreased, and the total import volume of needle woven garments increased by 11.3%, and the average price fell by 10.1%.
Cotton imports rebounded sharply. The spot price difference between domestic and foreign cotton narrowed.
In the first quarter, driven by the steady improvement of the textile industry, the operating rate of textile enterprises increased, cotton stocks consumed faster, and imports increased rapidly. The cumulative import volume of cotton was 374,000 tons, an increase of 78.5% year-on-year, and the unit price of imports increased by 6.8% year-on-year. Among them, the import volume and price in March increased by 109% and 5.4% respectively.
According to the monthly report released by the China Cotton Association, in March, the reserve cotton began to rotate, enriching the market resources, and the profits of textile enterprises remained stable. However, as part of the cotton reserves to use, quality problems are more prominent, plus a library, transportation and other expenses, compared to the overall cost of the new cotton advantage is not obvious. In order to ensure cotton blending, textile companies also purchase new cotton, and the spot market transaction is stable overall, and the price is stable and slightly lower.
The international market has been affected by various factors to maintain a volatile trend. The internal and external market linkages have increased, and the domestic and international spot price spreads have narrowed. China imports cotton price index FCIndexM month were 86.44 cents / lb, up 0.84 cents, equivalent to RMB under 1% tariff was 15,127 yuan / ton, lower than the same period of Chinese cotton price index of 735 yuan / ton, last month the spread over the same period Reduced by 362 yuan. The sliding standard tax is RMB 16103/ton, which is higher than the China cotton price index of RMB 241/ton over the same period.
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