February 4th Financial Breakfast: Non-agricultural data is difficult for the Fed to raise interest rates
Huitong.com February 4th - The data released on Friday (February 3) showed that the number of employed people in the US in January increased by 227,000, much higher than the expected value of 180,000, a new high in four months; After the release of agricultural data, the Fed’s probability of raising interest rates has not changed much; next week, a number of important data will be released. Please pay attention to the relevant reports of Huitong.com. 
Important financial data and major events to be watched next week (February 6 to 10) include:
Monday (February 6th): Eurozone February Sentix Investor Confidence Index on Tuesday (February 7th): China's January financial services PMI, Australia's cash rate for the week ending February 7th Germany's December seasonally adjusted industry Output monthly rate data US December trade account Canada January IVY season adjusted PMI
The Fed’s 2017 FOMC voter Huck spoke.
Wednesday (February 8): US EIA crude oil inventories as of February 3, US Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced monthly short-term energy outlook report New Zealand February official cash rate decision.
Thursday (February 9th): China's January trade account data (may be announced on the 9th or 10th)
China's January social financing scale (possibly on the 9th to 15th) announced the US December wholesale inventory monthly rate, the Australian Federal Reserve Chairman Lowell delivered a speech
2017 FOMC voting committee Evans speaks.
Friday (February 10th): UK December industrial output monthly rate UK December seasonally adjusted commodity trade account Canada January employment change series data US January import price index monthly rate.
[Overnight market news review]
[The United States imposes new sanctions on Iran involving 13 individuals and 12 entities]
On Friday (February 3), Beijing time, the United States announced new sanctions against Iran, as President Trump sought to punish the ballistic missile project in Tehran. Previously Trump warned Iran that its ballistic missile test was "playing fire." U.S. House Speaker Ryan also tends to impose additional sanctions on Iran.
[Federd Evans: Supporting a gradual rate hike, inflation may rise to 2% in three years]
On February 3, Beijing time, the Chicago Fed President and the 2017 FOMC Voter Evans gave a speech on the economy and policy. Evans said he supports a gradual rate hike and a slow rate hike because of the need to give the economy enough growth buffer to withstand the downside. He expects inflation to reach 2% in three years.
[Trump will suspend Obama’s entrusted investment regulations and order a review of the Dodd-Frank Act]
US President Trump will suspend a law that was criticized by the Obama administration during the Obama administration, which requires retired consultants to work in the best interests of their clients, and the Trump administration will evaluate the regulations; Ramp will also order a review of the Dodd-Frank Act, which was enacted in response to the 2008 financial crisis.
[List of major global markets]
Stock market <br> Domestic, February 3 news, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened higher and lower, the long and short sides of the morning and the afternoon have mutual income, near the end of the stock index re-entry decline. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3,061.17 points, down 0.60%, and the GEM reported 1875.76 points, down 0.5%. Today, the Shanghai stock market has shrunk extremely, with a turnover of 92.22 million hands, a record low since June 2014. Judging from the hot plate rotation in today's session, military mixed reform, ship mixed reform, and sub-new shares are the three most popular sectors today. The sectors with larger declines are e-sports, football concept, insurance and banking.
Market participants believe that the profit-taking after the holiday has been the main reason for the wide fluctuations in today's stock market. In addition, the daily limit of real-controlled stocks affected by rumors has also brought some pressure on the disk. The current market is not suitable for chasing up and down, and should pay attention to avoiding short-term operational risks.
In terms of European stocks, the FTSE Pan-European 300 Index closed up 0.55% to 1436.45 points, but it fell 0.72% this week. The European STOXX 600 index closed up 0.59% at 364.07 points, but fell 0.63% this week. The German DAX 30 index closed up 0.20% to 11,651.49 points, but fell 1.38% this week. The French CAC 40 index closed up 0.65% to 4825.42 points, but fell 0.30% this week. The UK's FTSE 100 index closed up 0.67% to 7188.30 points, up 0.05% this week.
In the US stock market, the Dow closed at a record high of 20,000 points above the Nasdaq, benefiting from a surge in banking stocks after non-agricultural and Trump liberalization: the S&P 500 closed up 16.57 points, or 0.73%, to 2297.42. Point, this week rose 0.1%; the S&P 500 Bank Index closed up 2.57%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 186.55 points, or 0.94%, to 20071.46 points, but fell 0.1% this week. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed up 30.57 points, or 0.54%, to 5666.77 points, up 0.1% this week; the Nasdaq Bank Index closed up 2.46%. The Russell 2000 index closed up 1.50% to 1377.84 points, up 0.31% this week. The panic index VIX closed down 8.05% to 10.97, but this week it rose 3.69%.
Futures <br> Crude oil, Brent crude oil April futures electronic disk on Thursday (February 2) rose 0.18 US dollars, or 0.32%, settlement price reported 56.74 US dollars per barrel, weekly growth of 2%, the largest in the year Weekly gains; US crude oil March futures electronic trading rose 0.32 US dollars, or 0.60%, to 53.86 US dollars per barrel, this week, the weekly line rose more than 1%.
Oil prices rose on Friday after the United States imposed sanctions on Iranian individuals and entities. The White House condemned Iran for missile testing a few days ago. US employment data for January also supported oil prices as the report indicates that energy demand will continue to be strong. The volume of US crude oil on Friday was relatively low. At 3:30 Beijing time, it was about 440,000 contracts, which was lower than the 200-day moving average of 528,000/day.
In gold, US April gold futures rose 0.1% to close at $1,020.80. The price of gold will rise by about 2% this week, as the dollar will record a four-week losing streak, influenced by investors' concerns about President Trump's work style and the prospect of raising interest rates. The price of gold changed little on February 3, and it lost ground earlier, as the US dollar was weighed down by US employment data. The non-farm payrolls report released by the US showed that wage growth was weak last month, which weakened the possibility of raising interest rates in the short term.
The world's largest gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) SPDR Gold Trust on Thursday (February 3) gold holdings increased by 1.5 tons to 811.22 tons, rising for the second day.
In terms of commodities, coke and coking coal fell 1.2% and 0.8%, thermal coal closed up 0.2%, and iron ore closed down 2.9%. Aluminum and nickel in the colored plates rose by 1.2% and 1.4% respectively; rebar and hot rolled coils fell by 2.7% and 2.2% respectively; rubber closed down by 0.8%, and asphalt closed up by 0.4%.
Forex <br> dollar fell on Friday, after trading volatility, after the US jobs report, despite the strong new jobs last month, but lower than expected wage growth, could prompt the US Federal Reserve Board (FED / Fed) in This year's rate hike is not so positive. The dollar is struggling because of fears that the Trump administration is leaning toward a weak dollar. The dollar’s ​​percentage decline in January was the largest in the same period in 30 years.
Later in the day, Chicago Fed President Evans said he tends to raise interest rates gradually, which further strengthens the dovish impact of the employment report. In late New York, the US dollar index was flat to slightly lower, at 99.776. The dollar fell 0.1% against the yen to 112.70, and the euro rose 0.2% against the dollar to 1.0775.
The onshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.8727 yuan at 23:30 Beijing time, up 80 points from the night of January 26; the daily trading volume expanded by 2.807 billion US dollars to 12.477 billion US dollars. Offshore RMB against the US dollar rose 80 points or 0.12% in late New York, and reported 6.8020 yuan at 06:00 Beijing time.
[International Finance News]
[US non-agricultural growth in January increased by 227,000, an increase of 4 months to a new high]
According to data released by the US Department of Labor on Friday (February 3), the number of employed people in the US in January increased by 227,000, much higher than the expected value of 180,000. The US non-farm employment growth in January hit a four-month high; The increase in employees in the construction and retail industries; but the unemployment rate rose by 0.1% to 4.8%, and the salary growth is limited, indicating that the US labor market still has a certain degree of weakness; although the policy details have not been clear since Trump took office, Consumer confidence and business confidence index are still rising.
[After the release of US non-agricultural data, the probability of a Fed rate hike has not changed much]
After the US non-farm payrolls data was released in January, according to the federal funds rate futures, traders thought that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in March was 34.0% (32.0% before the announcement), and the probability of raising interest rates in May was 51.5%. 51.6%), the probability of interest rate increase in June was 72.8% (72.7% before publication), the probability of interest rate increase in September was 85.7% (85.7%) before the announcement, and the probability of interest rate increase in December was 94.2% (94.1% before publication) ).
["Debt King" Gross commented on non-agricultural data]
"Debt King" Gross said after the non-agricultural release in January that he doubts that the real GDP growth in the United States can reach 3%-4%; we are trapped in a real GDP growth environment of 2%; we cannot assume the growth rate of the US dollar. US Treasury yields at 2.6% are a long-term trend line; US debt and German debt will be good trading options.
[Goldman Sachs: If the US President Trump's tax reform is realized, the dollar needs to appreciate by 25%]
Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle said in a research report that if US President Trump's tax reform can be fulfilled, such as reducing the statutory corporate tax rate to 20%, the dollar may need to appreciate by 25%; however, the border tax on the exchange rate The impact does not appear immediately.
[Eurozone's service industry accelerated in January, the final value was the highest since July 2016]
Markit's chief economist Williamson said that the euro zone's PMI data is generally in line with the 0.4% GDP quarterly rate, indicating that the economy started to be stable in 2017; the rapid growth of new business and the confidence of consumers in the future have reached the European debt. The highest level since the crisis has ensured that the economy will continue to grow strongly in the coming months.
[Zhongxing Bank: The pace of restoring balance in the US oil market is expected to slow down due to rising production]
Michael Wittner, head of oil market research at Societe Generale, wrote in a February 2 report that a rebound in US crude oil production would slow the pace of rebalancing the country's market and also keep WTI's premium on Brent crude oil; To maintain the current level and rise, the oil market needs to see stocks begin to fall; the bank maintains Brent crude at $55/barrel in the second quarter and $57.50 and $60/barrel in the third and fourth quarters respectively. .
[French Foreign Trade Bank: The euro will regain the 1.08 mark]
Analysts at the French Foreign Trade Bank believe that on the daily line, the euro-dollar rising channel remains intact, and both the trend and the oscillators have released long signals. In addition, at the weekly level, the Stochastic has also maintained a multi-state trend.
In this context, the current downward trend of the euro against the US dollar is seen as an adjustment. It is expected that the exchange rate will re-examine the daily Bollinger Band 1.0808 and the downtrend line pressure at 1.0839/50.
[Domestic financial news]
[The State Administration of Foreign Exchange will relax restrictions on the return of funds under internal insurance loans]
Guo Song, director of the Capital Accounts Department of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said in an exclusive interview with China Foreign Exchange that the foreign exchange bureau will accelerate a series of reform measures in 2017, including research to support cross-border asset transfers and ease of repatriation of funds under internal insurance. Restrictions, research and improve the management of domestic foreign exchange loans and regulate the foreign exchange management of domestic institutions issuing bonds.
[The Chinese central bank unexpectedly raised interest rates, officials said that monetary policy should remain prudent and stable]
The People's Bank of China announced on Friday (February 3) that the MLF operation in January totaled 551.0 billion yuan, and the SLF operation totaled 87.675 billion yuan. The People's Bank of China said that it has adjusted the standing loan interest rate since today. The adjusted overnight, seven-day and one-month interest rates were 3.1%, 3.35% and 3.7% respectively.
[The financing balance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges dropped 13 times and fell below 870 billion yuan]
As of January 26, the SSE's financing balance was reported to be 498.374 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.608 billion yuan from the previous trading day; the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's financing balance was 366.636 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.596 billion yuan; the two cities totaled 865.01 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.204 billion yuan.
SHAOXING SKYRISE TEXTILE CO.,LTD , https://www.eurofashiontextile.com